Latest forecast
| Horizon | Target (UTC) | Median | Δ pips | 50 % band | 90 % band | P(up) |
|---|
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Closed hourly bars, times in UTC. The cone is the picked model's latest forecast, the reference model's unless the picker says otherwise: dashed median, 50 % band (dark) and 90 % band (light). The markers give P(up), the chance that the bar closes above the origin close, at 1 h, 4 h, 12 h, 1 d, 3 d and 1 w. Name a past origin bar in the replay control and the page draws the cone that model issued then over the bars that followed it, and stops updating until “latest”. Before the forward test began the ledger holds no forecast, so the cone at such an origin is reconstructed from the bars up to it: what the model would have said, marked as reconstructed, and no part of the record the verification table scores.
| Horizon | Target (UTC) | Median | Δ pips | 50 % band | 90 % band | P(up) |
|---|
Scored forecast points whose target bar closed in the window, from the score ledger. MAE in pips (0.0001); naive is the random walk (last close carried forward); skill is 1 − MAE / naive MAE, positive when the median beats the last close; coverage is the share of targets inside the 50 / 80 / 90 % bands, ideally the nominal value.